A hot, dry pattern is expected across North Georgia over the next 7-10 days.
It has been a fairly cool summer so far, with Cornelia only officially topping out at 89.8º for the maximum high for the year on Friday afternoon. We will likely stay below 90 through at least next weekend, but it will remain warm and dry for an extended period. The record for the latest first high temperature of 90 at Cornelia is July 31st, set in 1979. While we aren’t likely to break that record or any daily maximums, the upcoming pattern could signify things to come as La Nina takes hold in the Pacific.
The year has been fairly wet so far, with Cornelia running around an 8.8″ surplus of rain since the beginning of the year. However, with only 1.5″ of rain so far this month, things are certainly trending in a drier direction. The last measurable rainfall came back on June 11, but if we don’t pick up some rain from pop-up storms in the next couple of days, that streak will likely extend to 7 or 10 days.
The culprit is a large area of high pressure expected to entrench itself over the eastern US this upcoming week. You can see it as the large area of red in this image, which shows the 5-day departure from average upper level pressures. This large red area is a ridge that will keep any significant moisture from getting into the area.
The worst heat is expected to be centered over the northeast and upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley. In fact, parts of West Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are already dealing with excessive heat watches for Monday. In that region, high temperatures are expected to reach into the mid/upper 90s, with heat index values well over 100.
Locally, we will be just far enough away from the strongest part of the ridge to avoid that kind of heat. Highs only in the mid/upper 80s are expected through Friday, although we could finally reach that 90º mark by next weekend.
For the five days starting next Saturday, high pressure is expected to continue, although confidence drops in its strength and exact location.
The bigger story we could be dealing with locally heading towards the end of the month and early July will be the lack of rainfall. Other than some pop-up isolated afternoon storms, no major rainmakers are in the forecast for the next 7-10 days at least. The 7-day average precipitation below shows the potential for those afternoon storms over the higher elevations, but outside of that, a paltry 1/10″ or less indicates some very dry conditions.
If you get underneath one of these storms, count yourself lucky.
Unfortunately, this could easily become the story of the summer thanks to the beginnings of a La Nina over the Pacific Ocean. A La Nina generally results in warmer/drier conditions across the south. The flip side is that it does promote hurricane development, which can result in periods of heavy rain mixed in among the dry spells.
Image Source: National Weather Service
This could spell trouble for the summer regarding hurricanes. The Atlantic Ocean has been running significantly warmer than normal. You can see this below in the latest charts from NOAA, which depict differences from the average. You can also pick out the La Nina area as the little blue swirls along the equator west of South America.
This has led to NOAA predicting an above-average hurricane season.
Regardless of how hot we get over the next week, this summer promises to keep us on our toes from a weather perspective. Keep an eye to the sky and stick with Now Habersham for the latest on any local impacts from “heat domes”, “death ridges”, or tropical systems.
